# KAPLAN MM305 FULL COURSE

January 30, 2017

DISCUSSION 1What is ethics? Why is the study of ethics important to you?

DISCUSSION 2There are three approaches to finding probability that you discussed in this unit; theoretical probability, relative frequency probability, and subjective probability. From your own experience either personally and/or professionally provide one example of where you have encountered each of these different probabilities. Be sure to explain why the example you cite is an example of the particular approach to finding probability.
DISCUSSION 3
When the results of a survey or poll are published, the sample size and the margin of error are both given. For example: 1000 voters were surveyed and 39±2% of the voters agree with the president. In this example N=1000 and the margin of error (MoE) is 2%.

This website lists several public opinion polls. Search the site and find a poll where the sample size and margin of error are given. Try to find a poll dealing with a topic in your profession or one in which you are really interested.

http://www.pollingreport.com

Determine the following information for the selected poll results and include in your initial post:

URL for the website
Using your own words, state the topic of the poll in a full sentence.
State the sample size and margin of error.
Interpret the results of your poll using your own words and full sentences. Note: Depending on the question asked, your poll may have more than one poll result – you only need to discuss one result.
Looking at the results with respect to the margin of error, do you think there is a significant difference in the responses to the different questions being asked?
What role could sampling have played in determining these results?
In your response posts, question your classmates about some of the potential biases that could interfere with accurate estimates for the population parameter in question.

DISCUSSION 4
Develop a Research Question: In your area of interest, think about a research question that could be answered using a hypothesis test. Write down this research question, and explain what your research is trying to investigate.
State the Hypotheses: Using your research question, create either a one-tailed or a two-tailed hypothesis test and state your null hypothesis and alternative (research) hypothesis. Be sure to use Ho and Ha.
Determine the Conclusion: Assume that you obtained a p-value less than your selected value for alpha, provide a conclusion about your research hypothesis.
DISCUSSION 5
Topic 1

Give an example of a good decision that you made that resulted in a bad outcome. Also give an example of a bad decision that had a good outcome. Why was each decision good or bad?

Topic 2

Give an example of a situation in your life where you can identify an opportunity loss. Explain why this was an opportunity loss and any implications it may have had on future decisions.

DISCUSSION 6Describe a situation where it would be appropriate to use forecasting. Be sure to include all the necessary steps to develop the forecast and why you would use the forecast you chose. Please be thorough and provide enough detail to allow meaningful responses from your classmates.
DISCUSSION 7Provide at least one example of when you might use (1) the minimal-spanning-tree technique, (2) the shortest path, and (3) the maximal flow through a network technique. and explain why it would be the appropriate technique to apply in each of the situations you describe. Please be thorough and provide enough detail to allow meaningful responses from your classmates.
DISCUSSION 8
Project Management

Scenario: You are a consultant with expertise in project management strategies. Select a possible project management situation from your current or future professional experience. As a project management consultant, you are tasked with developing a project management plan for this project. Your goal is to maximize the time, resources and finances associated with the project in the best interests of the business/company. You will need to write a professional memo to the business/company owner describing the management of the project.

Create the PERT/CPM activity network for your project that includes at least five activities and at least one predecessor activity.
Estimate the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic times to then determine an expected time for each activity.
Determine all activities that are on the critical path.
Identify the slack time (if any) associated with activities in the project.
Create a Gantt chart to show the project timeline.

What is the overall timeline for this project?
What activities are critical for established timeline of the project?
What activities have flexibility in completion that would not impact the overall project timeline?
What time, resources and money might be affected by any changes to activities throughout the project?
What recommendations would you suggest to prioritize the company’s time, resources and money with regards to the project?
Suggested Guidelines for Secondary Reponses:

First Response to a Classmate’s post: Review one of your classmates’ post. Further the math conversation by responding in a professional manner in the role of the business owner.

Second Response to a Classmate’s post:

Review a different classmates’ post. Further the math conversation by identifying any additional variables that have may have been overlooked or added into the project. How would this change the overall project timeline?

DISCUSSION 9Describe three recent situations in which you were directly affected by poor product or service quality. What might have been the cause and how might statistical quality control help eliminate these situations?

UNIT 4
Name:

Directions:

· In this project you will be using the Salary Datafile that is found in Doc Sharing under the Instructor-Graded Projects:

· Steps for accessing the Salary Data file:

1. Open your Excel with PhStat2

2. Click File—Open

3. Select the Salary Data file

· Not all questions require the use of technology or the Salary Date file.

· You may insert your answers, including any charts, graphs, or output, on this document.

· Be sure to put your name on this document and save it to your computer.

1. For each the following variables from the Salary Data Setprovide the measures of location and measures of dispersion for the following variables:

1.Previous Experience

2.Education

3.Which variable has the greatest relative variability?

2. You are the manager of a high-end ladies fashion store. For the past few months you have been gathering data and found that 45% of persons entering the store actually make a purchase. Assume these data follow a Binomial Distribution and use Excel to calculate the following binomial probabilities:

1.If 15 people enter the store, what is the probability that 9 of them will make a purchase?

2.What is the probability that at least 6 of the 15 people will make a purchase?

3. Using the Salary Data Set what is the probability of randomly selecting one individual (male or female) with acurrent annual salary of over \$55,000?

4. The time required to complete a project is normally distributed with a mean of 80 weeks and a standard deviation of 5 weeks. The construction company must pay a penalty if the project is not finished by the due date of the contract. If a construction company bidding on this contract wishes to be 90 percent sure of finishing by the due date, use the NORMINV Excel Function to determine what due date (project week #) should be negotiated?

5. In a state lottery participants select 6 numbers between 1 and 49. At the end of the week, the state lottery commission randomly draws 6 numbers between 1 and 49. How many different possible winning number combinations could be drawn by the lottery commission?

6. From the Salary Data Set and assuming that the salary data is a random sample from the population of salaries from the multi-national company use the 90% confidence level in PHStat to estimatethe mean current salary for company executives.

1.The 90% confidence level is:

2.If you were to change the confidence level to 95%, what would happen to the confidence interval?

7. Using the Salary Data Set,

1. Create a scatter plot to show this relationship between education and beginning salary

2. Determine the correlation between the variables

8. Explain why rejecting the null hypothesis does not make the alternative hypothesis true.

9. What is the purpose of statistical inference?

10. What is the difference between sampling error and the standard error of the mean?

11. You are a consultant working for Kaplan Consulting. The Director of Human Resources for a multi-national company has requested help in investigating a pay discrimination complaint brought by a female executive. The company provided the data in the Salary Data Set. Use PHStatand the appropriate t test, to investigate the claim of pay discrimination in the current salaries. Be sure to include:

2.The level of alpha you elect to use and why in terms of Type I or Type II error;

3.Show the output from the analysis;

4.Your interpretation of the results; and

5.A written statement to the director of Human Resources as to whether they should be concerned about the complaint.

· Save your project in a location that you will remember and with your full name. When you are ready to submit your project, click on the Dropbox and complete the steps below:

· Click the link that says, “Submit an Assignment.”

· Click the “Add Attachments” button.

· Make sure that you save a copy of your submitted project.

UNIT 7
Name:

Directions:

· In this project you will be using the States Datafilethat is found in Doc Sharing under the Instructor-Graded Projects:

· Steps for accessing the States Data file:

1. Open your Excel with PhStat2

2. Click File—Open

3. Select the States Data file

· Not all questions require the use of technology or the States Date file.

· You may insert your answers, including any charts, graphs, or output, on this document.

· Be sure to put your name on this document and save it to your computer.

1. Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Solomon has been thinking about starting her own independent gas station. Susan’s problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of the station and a number of marketing factors related to oil industry and demand for gasoline. After careful analysis, Susan developed the following table:

Size of Gasoline Station

Good Market (\$)

Fair Market (\$)

Poor Market (\$)

Small

\$70,000

\$30,000

-\$30,000

Medium

\$110,000

\$50,000

-\$40,000

Large

\$170,000

\$70,000

-\$50,000

1.Develop a decision table for this decision.

2.What is the Maximax decision?

3.What is the Maximin decision?

4.What is the criterion of realism decision? Use ? = 0.6.

5.Develop an Opportunity Loss Table

6.What is the Minimax Regret Decision?

2. Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Sunshine Garden Supply are shown in the following table.

Year

Demand for Fertilizer (1,000s of Bags)

1

4

2

7

3

5

4

5

5

10

6

7

7

8

8

9

9

11

10

14

11

15

Use Excel QM to:

1.Develop a three-year moving average to forecast sales in year 12.

2.Develop a 3-year weighted average to predict demand in year 12, in which sales in the most recent year is given a weight of 2 and sales in the two years prior to that are each given a weight of 1.

3.Develop a regression/trend line to estimate the demand for fertilizer in year 12.

4.Based on the three forecasts you have created, which forecast is the most accurate?

3. Kaplan College has decided to “wire” its campus. The first stage in this effort is to install the “backbone,” i.e., to connect all the buildings. The table below gives the distances between the various buildings on campus in hundreds of feet.

Distances in Hundreds of Feet

From

To

Building 1

Building 2

Building 3

Building 4

Building 5

Building 6

Building 1

3

7

5

5

4

Building 2

5

2

6

6

Building 3

5

4

4

Building 4

5

3

Building 5

4

Building 6

1.How should the buildings be connected to minimize the total length of cable?

2.What length of cable is required?

4. The following represents the distances in miles from a warehouse (node 1) to various cities in Montana. The major outlet store is located at node 7.

From Node

To Node

Distance

1

2

40

1

4

100

2

3

20

2

4

30

3

4

60

3

5

40

3

6

20

4

5

70

4

7

50

5

6

50

5

7

80

6

7

40

1.Find the shortest route and distance from Node 1 to Node 7.

5. The network of a city sewer system and their capacities are shown below. Remember that the arc has both capacity and reverse capacity. For example, row 1 is the flow from node 1 to node 2 and row 2 is the reverse flow from node 2 to node 1. There are eight branches in this network.

From Node

To Node

Fluid Flow

1

2

150

2

1

100

1

3

0

3

1

150

1

4

300

4

1

300

1

5

150

5

1

100

2

4

300

4

2

200

3

4

250

4

3

300

3

5

300

5

3

250

4

5

100

5

4

0

Determine the maximum flow (in hundreds of gallons of water per minute) from node 1 to node 5

6. The governor of Michigan believes that the state can improve the state’s crime rate if the state can reduce the college debt carried by its citizens and if they can increase the percent of the population covered by health insurance.

1. Using the States Data Set and PHStat, create the multiple regression prediction equation.

2. Predict the crime rate for Michigan if the college debt were \$25,000 and the percent not covered by insurance was 10?

7. A concessionaire for the local ballpark has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decisions) and states of nature (size of crowd).

Stocking Decision

Large Crowd (\$)

Average Crowd (\$)

Small Crowd (\$)

Large Inventory

\$22,000

\$12,000

-\$2,000

Average Inventory

\$15,000

\$12,000

\$6,000

Small Inventory

\$9,000

\$6,000

\$5,000

If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.30 for a large crowd, 0.50 for an average crowd, and 0.20 for a small crowd, determine:

1. The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV).

2. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI).

· Save your project in a location that you will remember and with your full name. When you are ready to submit your project, click on the Dropbox and complete the steps below:

· Click the link that says, “Submit an Assignment.”

· Click the “Add Attachments” button.

· Make sure that you save a copy of your submitted project.

UNIT 9
Name:

Directions:

· In this project you will be using the States Datafile that is found in Doc Sharing under the Instructor-Graded Projects:

· Steps for accessing the States Data file:

1. Open your Excel with PhStat2

2. Click File—Open

3. Select the States Data file

· Not all questions require the use of technology or the States Date file.

· You may insert your answers, including any charts, graphs, or output, on this document.

· Be sure to put your name on this document and save it to your computer.

1. Allen Machines specializes in developing weed-harvesting equipment that is used to clear small lakes of weeds. Allen Machines is contemplating the construction of a machine that would harvest weeds on narrow rivers and waterways. The activities and time in weeks necessary to build one of these experimental machines are shown in the table below.

Activity

Immediate Predecessors

Time in Weeks

A

none

6

B

none

5

C

A

3

D

A

2

E

B

4

F

B

6

G

C,E

10

H

D,F

7

1.What is the minimum possible time required for completing the project?

2.What is the latest possible time that Activity D may be started without delaying the completion of the project?

3.What is the latest finish time for Activity F?

4.What is/are the critical path(s)?

2. The following is the activity and associated costs for the renovation of the local high school football stadium. The times are in weeks.

Activity

Immediate Predecessor

Time

Cost (\$)

A

4

25,000

B

5

30,000

C

A

3

15,000

D

B

8

50,000

E

B

2

12,000

F

C, D

3

15,000

G

C, D

7

46,000

H

E, F

2

20,000

1.What is the critical path for this project?

2.How much of the total budget would be spent in Week 8 (Period 8) with the earliest start budget?

3. Precision Manufacturing has a government contract to produce stainless steel rods for use in military aircraft. Each rod is required to be 20 millimeters in diameter. Each hour, random samples of size n = 4 rods are measured to check process control. Five hours of observations yielded the following:

Diameter

Time

Rod 1

Rod 2

Rod 3

Rod 4

9 A.M.

19.8

20.4

19.9

20.3

10 A.M.

20.1

20.2

19.9

19.8

11 A.M.

19.9

20.5

20.3

20.1

Noon

19.7

19.8

20.3

20.2

1 P.M.

19.7

20.1

19.9

19.9

1.Construct the xbar-chart and the R-chart.

2.Is the process in control?

4. Modern Electronics specializes in manufacturing modern electronic components. It also builds the equipment that produces the components. Modern Electronics is considering building a new facility but the estimated profits would be impacted by the type of market that develops. The probability for a strong market is 0.3; for a fair market is 0.5; and for a poor market is 0.2. You are responsible for advising the president of Modern Electronics on the type facility that should be built or to not build a facility at all. The table shows the estimated profits under each market and for each size facility.

Estimated Profits

Strong Market

Fair Market

Poor Market

Build a large facility

550,000

110,000

-310,000

Build a medium-size facility

300,000

129,000

-100,000

Build a small facility

200,000

100,000

-32,000

Do not build a facility

0

0

0

1.Provide a recommendation to the president that maximizes profits

2.Provide a second recommendation to the president that minimizes regret.

5. Consulting income at Kaplan Associates for the period February – July is shown in the table below. Assume that the initial forecast for February is \$65,000.Use Exponential smoothing to forecast August’s income.

Month

Income (\$1,000)

February

70.0

March

68.5

April

64.8

May

71.7

June

71.3

July

72.8

1.Use a smoothing constant of ? = 0.2.

2.Use a smoothing constant of ? = 0.5.

3.Which forecasting constant is best in this situation?

6. Johnson Construction Company is in the process of installing power lines to a large housing development. The company wants to minimize the total length of wire used, which would minimize the company’s cost. The housing development is shown below. Each house has been numbered, and the distances between houses are given in hundreds of feet.

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1.What do you recommend to Johnson Construction Company?

7. The storm drains in the Cedar Rapids, Iowa, have been upgraded following the devastating floods of 2008. The network of storm drains and the capacities are shown below. Determine the maximum flow (in hundreds of gallons of water per minute) from node 1 to node 5.Remember that the arc has both capacity and reverse capacity.

From Node

To Node

Fluid Flow

1

2

250

2

1

100

1

3

100

3

1

150

1

4

400

4

1

400

1

5

150

5

1

200

2

4

300

4

2

200

3

4

250

4

3

300

3

5

300

5

3

250

4

5

300

5

4

0

8. From the States Data Setthe following output for the Income in 2000 and for the Income in 2010 was created.

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1.Which variable has the greatest relative variation?

9.You are a consultant working for Kaplan Consulting. The U.S. Department of Laborhas requested assistance in evaluating the impact of economic stimulus on the unemployment rate. From theStates Data Setthe following t test was conducted to answer the question:
“Has there been a significant reduction in the national unemployment rate between January and June?”

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1.What is the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses?

2.What is your level of alpha (?)?

10. The Governor of a southern state has asked Kaplan Consulting to determine if the state were able to increase the percentage of its population with a Bachelor’s Degree to 50%, what might be the expected median household income based on 2010 data? Here is the output from the Regression procedure from Excel.

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1.What would be the predicted median household income if the percentage of the population in the state were 50% or 50?

· Save your project in a location that you will remember and with your full name. When you are ready to submit your project, click on the Dropbox and complete the steps below:

· Click the link that says, “Submit an Assignment.”