# . If, as a result of a hypothesis test, you reject the null hypothesis

32. Suppose a composite price index number for 1 gallon of

milk, 2 loaves of bread, and 1 pound of

hamburger was 110 in 2004 and 119 in 2005. If both indices

were computed from 2004 base of 100, the

actual percentage growth over that past tow years is

a. Approximately 8.18%

b. Approximately 9%

c. 19%

d. 0%

e. Can’t be determined from the information given.

10

33. The following table contains the number of complaints

received in a department store for the first 6

months of last year.

Month Jan Feb March April May June

Complaints 36 45 81 92 108 140

If the series is smoothed using exponential smoothing with

smoothing constant of

1

3

, the forecast value

for July is:

a. 100

b. 36

c. 53

d. 66

e. 80

34. The managing partner of an advertising agency believes

that his company’s sales ( t y ) are related to

industry sales ( 1t x ). He uses MINITAB to analyze the last

15 years of quarterly data. The following

regression model has been developed: yˆt 3.862 0.040451 x 1t with the standard error = 0.9224 and the

Durbin-Watson statistic equal to 1.59. The partner wants to

test if a positive autocorrelation exist. Using

5% level of significance, the decision he should make is:

a. The test is unable to make a definite conclusion.

b. There is evidence of positive autocorrelation.

c. There is no evidence of positive autocorrelation.

d. There is evidence of autocorrelation.

e. There is no enough information to perform the test

.

Questions from 36 to 38 deal with a seasonal index being

computed, using the ratio – to – moving –

average method for quarterly data from 2000 to 2004. The

ratio to moving average for the second quarter

of each year are 2000, 0.109; 2001, 0.1128; 2002, 0.11;

2003, 0.108; 2004, 0.1046

36. What is the unadjusted index for the second quarter?

a. 1.0888

b. 1.0900

c. 1.1023

d. 1.1096

e. None of the above.

37. Assume that the total of the unadjusted indices for the

four quarters is 4.0404. If the unadjusted index

for the first quarter is 0.97, what is the adjusted

(normalized) seasonal index for the first quarter?

a. 0.960300

b. 0.979797

c. 0.99

d. 1.08888

e. Can’t be determined from the above information.

38. The adjusted (normalized) seasonal index for the third

quarter is 0.95. If the deseasonalized trend that

was found to estimate quarterly sales is y 400 9x t

, what would be the seasonalized sales estimate for

the third quarter of 2005?

a. 576.65

b. 607

c. 427

d. 405.65

e. None of the above.

Given below are the prices of a basket of four food items

from 1996 to 2000.

Year Wheat($/Bushel) Corn($/Bushel) Soybeans($/Bushel)

Milk($/hundredweight)

1996 4.25 3.71 7.41 15.03

1997 3.43 2.7 7.55 13.63

1998 2.63 2.3 6.05 15.18

1999 2.11 1.97 4.68 14.72

2000 2.16 1.9 4.81 12.32

Use the data to answer the questions from 39 to 41

39. The simple price indexes for the milk, in 1999 using

1996 as the base year?

a. 101

b. 97.94

c. 81.79

d. 122

e. None of the above.

12

40. What is the Laspeyres price index for the basket of four

food items in 1998 that consisted of 50

bushels of wheat, 30 bushels of corn, 40 bushels of soybeans

and 80 hundredweight of milk in 1996 using

1996 as the base year?

a. 90.91

b. 83.91

c. 73.69

d. 111.38

e. Can’t be determined from the above information

41. If the adjusted Corn price in 1997 is 15.239 and the CPI

in 1997 is 113.81, then the actual price for

Corn in 1993 is

a. 17.3435

b. 13.3898

c. 15.2390

d. 13.8100

e. Can’t be determined from the above information

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