EAS 131-Written Assignment 5 Research forecasting models

| June 13, 2018

Written Assignment 5Research forecasting models in use and find out what you can about what the key parameters are. What advances are being made in technology and algorithms in helping advance the accuracy of forecasting?Contrast the forecasting methods of several decades ago with forecasting methods in use today.Discuss how input variations and processing errors can accumulate over multiple forecasted time periods and provide simple examples of this mechanism. (For example, if a variable like temperature is worked on by an algorithm to determine the projected temperature one hour in the future, then what does the model do to project temperature six hours from now? How would the compounding of minor errors affect the accuracy of the final result.)Demonstrate that you understand from a simple mathematical perspective the reason why forecasting is so difficult, and how errors can accumulate. Note: This written assignment needs to be 5 pages in length (not including references or diagrams) with 1.5 spacing and 12-point Times New Roman or New Courier font. Please include references and diagrams if applicable. The references should follow the main text and any diagrams should be included in the body of the narrative.The writing assignment should contain (in this order):Title Page (not included in total pages)AbstractIntroductionNarrativeSummaryReferences (not included in total papers)

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