Decision Making _ Decisions Involving Probability

Decision making, and related topics, are critically important in many areas of life. As a result, the literature is voluminous. You should consider the sources below to be mere starting points for your research. Feel free to use any relevant sources you find on the Web; a search engine such as Google will bring up hundreds of them. Whichever sources you use, be sure to provide references and in-text citations; see the Student Guide to Writing a High-Quality Academic Paper and/or the OWL at Purdue APA website at https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/560/01/ for examples.Note: Wikipedia or Wikipedia-derived sources are not considered reliable for controversial topics, since they can be edited by users. They are, however, useful when researching well-established topics, such as the ones covered in this course.Module 2 Sources by Topic, in suggested reading order. (It looks like a lot to read, but be of good cheer; most of the articles are short. Also, many of them are redundant; they consist of the same information, presented differently.)Primary sources: Bold.Bennet, B. (2017a). Questionable Cause (Cum hoc ergo propter hoc). Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/148/Questionable-CauseBennet, B. (2017b). Regression fallacy. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/153/Regression_FallacyCarroll, R. (2014a). Clustering illusion (aka of Small Numbers) Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from http://skepdic.com/clustering.htmlCarroll, R. (2014b). Regressive fallacy. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from http://skepdic.com/regressive.htmliResearch. (2017b). Correlation. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from http://psychology.iresearchnet.com/developmental-psychology/developmental-psychology-research-methods/correlation/iResearch. (2017c). Illusory correlation. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from http://psychology.iresearchnet.com/social-psychology/decision-making/illusory-correlation/iResearch. (2017d). Law of small numbers. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from http://psychology.iresearchnet.com/social-psychology/decision-making/law-of-small-numbers/Jakobsen, G. (2013). Determining causality. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from http://www.popularsocialscience.com/2013/04/24/determining-causality/RatWiki (2017b). Correlation does not imply causation. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causationRatWiki (2017c). Causality. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/CausalityRatWiki (2017d). Regression fallacy. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Regression_fallacyRensvold, R. (2017a). Correlation and causality. (Lecture notes for MGT422, Trident University. Not available online.)Wiki (2017b). Correlation and dependence. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_and_dependenceWiki (2017c). Illusory correlation. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_Correlation Wiki (2017d). Causality. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CausalityWiki (2017e). Regression fallacy. Retrieved on 20 September 2017 from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_fallacyScenario:A man has just locked up the house for the night and comes into the bedroom. His wife is already in bed. The following conversation ensues:.She: Did you set the alarm?He: Always. Why do you ask?She: ‘Cause the moon is bright tonight. A break-in is more likely when there is a moon.He: Hmm. Where did you hear that?She: At the PTO meeting. Three of the women there had their houses broken into while they were asleep, and on every occasion, there was a moon. The burglars ran, and the girls saw them running across their lawn in the moonlight.He: OK, well … I’l double-check the alarm.She: Thanks, honey.Case AssignmentWrite a short essay answering the questions below.The people in the scenario are implicitly discussing a relationship between two variables; an independent variable (A), and a dependent variable (B). A is supposedly associated with B.1.What are the variables?2.What is the relationship?3.Is the data presented sufficient to establish a correlation? Why or why not?4.If not, what additional data would be required?5.What data would be required to establish a causal relationship?Without collecting data, but simply considering the types of data required, how likely do you think it is that one could establish a correlational relationship? A causal relationship? Explain.

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