A contractor working on an outdoor construction project

| May 16, 2019


A contractor working on an outdoor construction project in a coastal area is reviewing progress on August 1. If normal progress is maintained and no time is lost due to hurricanes, the job will be completed on August 31. However, due to the poor weather conditions in the area after August 16, there will be only a 40 percent chance of finishing on time. It is estimated that there is a 40 percent chance of a minor hurricane, which will cause a delay of 6 days. There is a 20 percent chance of a major hurricane, which will cause a delay of 12 days. It must be decided now whether to speed up the work from August 2 at an additional cost of $150 per day and finish the project on August 16 (i.e. in 15 days) or take the risk that a hurricane might occur in the project area before 31st August. In the event of a hurricane, the cost of the project delay would be $900 per day for first 6 days and $1200 per day for next 6 days.  
a) Develop a decision tree for the above problem (you can use MS Word). b) Using the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) technique to find out the best possible option. Show your workings. c) Provide the solution to the above question using precision tree and provide related screen shots or print in word file. Submit MS Word file (or Pdf) containing a, b and c. Also upload the excel file used with Precision Tree for part c.

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